Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Mississippi were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Mason-Dixon poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from March 28 to March 30. A total of 625 registered voters responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 55.0% of the two-party vote in Mississippi. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.3 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.