Mason-DixonMason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Mississippi were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Mason-DixonMason-Dixon poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from March 28 to March 30 among 625 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 55.0% of the two-party vote in Mississippi. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.3 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is negligible.