Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between January 18 and January 20. The sample size was 800 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.