Michigan: New Emerson poll has Trump behind by 5 points
Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 45.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 25 to August 28 among 800 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.4 points. This means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan sees Clinton at 54.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.