Suffolk University poll in Michigan: Clinton with 7 points lead
By Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
The results show that 44.0% of participants indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 22 and August 24. The sample size was 500 participants. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 54.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Suffolk University poll Clinton's poll average is 0 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.
