Methods widely agree on the election outcome

Polly the parrot today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.

Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 52.3% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.6% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly high with 52.3% in expectation polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, expectation polls expected a vote share of 54.2% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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