Boston Globe/Suffolk published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Boston Globe/Suffolk poll results
The results show that 55.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between May 2 and May 5. The sample size was 500 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.1% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.8% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.