Maine: Clinton with significant advantage in Press Herald/UNH poll
Press Herald/UNH released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Press Herald/UNH poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between June 15 and June 21. The sample size was 475 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 55.2% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.