Maine: 10 points lead for Clinton in latest Gravis poll
Results of a new poll conducted by Gravis were released. The poll asked respondents from Maine for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Gravis poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 4 to August 8 among 2046 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.2% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, the PollyVote is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.