Magellan (R) poll in Mississippi: Clinton behind by 15 points
Magellan (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Mississippi were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Magellan (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 39.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 54.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 11 to August 11 among 1084 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 41.9% for Clinton and 58.1% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 55.0% of the two-party vote in Mississippi. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.