JMC Analytics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
According to the results, 36.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 52.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from May 5 to May 6 with 624 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may include large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 40.9% for Clinton and 59.1% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.