Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.