Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 7 to October 11 among 1735 registered voters. The error margin is +/-2.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. On August 1 Clinton received 54.2% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump received only 45.8%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 3.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.