The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.6%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton currently runs at 53.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points better.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.