Results of a new poll carried out by Gravis were released. The poll asked respondents from Arizona for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Gravis poll results
The results show that 40.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 27 to August 27 among 1244 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.8 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 51.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Arizona. Relative to his numbers in the Gravis poll Trump's poll average is 1.3 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.9 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.