Results of a new poll administered by FieldField were spread. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FieldField poll results
According to the results, 58.0% of respondents would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 8 to July 2 among 956 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 67.4% for Clinton and 32.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 63.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the FieldField poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's forecast is 6.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.