Latest Emerson poll in North Carolina: Clinton and Trump in a tossup
Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were announced. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 27 and August 29. The sample size was 800 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 49.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.