Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were circulated. The poll asked participants from Maine for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of respondents plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 among 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.2% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.