Latest Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck
The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.