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Latest Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck


The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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