Latest DeSart model in Ohio: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will win 50.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 50.9% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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