Latest DeSart model in Colorado: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump in Colorado. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

In Colorado, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Colorado. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 6.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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