Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 9 to July 13 with 701 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, the PollyVote is 6.2 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.