CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Nevada, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 2 to August 5 among 993 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.6 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.