Arizona Republic published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Arizona Republic poll results
According to the results, 35.0% of interviewees indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 31 among 704 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 50.7% for Clinton and 49.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Arizona polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 48.9%. Compared to his numbers in the Arizona Republic poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.0 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.