Kentucky: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, while Trump will win 64.5%. In comparison, on September 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.