Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Texas

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 46.8% for Clinton, and 53.2% for Trump in Texas. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Texas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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