Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Kentucky

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, whereas Trump will win 52.2%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 52.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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