The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they may include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.7% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.