Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Virginia

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.3% for Clinton, and 55.7% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 55.7% of the vote.

In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.7% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.