The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 35.4% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will win 64.6%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.