Jerome model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 55.7%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.8% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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