Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump with small lead
The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.