Jerome model in New Jersey: Clinton with clear lead
The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 57.7% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will win 42.3%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.