Jerome model in Michigan: Clinton with comfortable lead
The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 55.1% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will win 44.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 44.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Michigan. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.