Jerome model in Louisiana: Trump with comfortable lead
The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 46.7% for Clinton, and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 53.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Louisiana.