Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.3% for Clinton, and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 45.7% of the vote.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.