Jerome model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton, and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 7.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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