Jerome model in Colorado: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 53.7% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, whereas Trump will win 46.3%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 46.3% of the vote.
Historically, Colorado has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular interest.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Colorado. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.