Jerome model in California: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, and 46.7% for Trump in California. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 46.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 7.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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