Jerome model in Alaska: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 30.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, while Trump will end up with 69.1%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Alaska. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 10.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Alaska.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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