Jerome model: Clinton with very clear lead in Massachusetts

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 61.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, whereas Trump will end up with 38.4%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 38.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Massachusetts.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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