Jerome model: Clinton with very clear lead in Maryland

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 60.8% for Clinton, and 39.2% for Trump in Maryland. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Maryland.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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