Jerome model: Clinton with very clear lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 86.4% for Clinton, and 13.6% for Trump. In comparison, on September 7 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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