Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Wisconsin
The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.1% of the two-party vote share in Wisconsin, whereas Trump will end up with 44.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 44.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.