Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in New Hampshire

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will end up with 45.9%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

New Hampshire is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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