Jerome model: Clinton with clear lead in New York
The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 58.9% of the two-party vote share in New York, while Trump will end up with 41.1%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 41.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New York.