Jerome model: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 13.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 13.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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