Jerome model: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 13.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 13.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.