Jerome model: Clinton in South Dakota trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, while Trump will win 57.0%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in South Dakota. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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