Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Jérôme & Jérôme model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump winning 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.5 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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