Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issue-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 55.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 44.2%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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